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Humanity has begun wrestling with the dangers of global threats such as climate change.But few autho...
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Humanity has begun wrestling with the dangers of global threats such as climate change.But few authorities are planning for catastrophic solar storms -huge eruptions of mass and energy from the sun that destroy Earth’s magnetic field. In a recent paper,two Harvard University scientists estimate the potential economic damage from such an event will increase in the future and could equal the current U.S.GDP-about$20 trillion-150years from now.
This kind of storm has happened before.The so-called Carrington Event in 1859,the most intense magnetic storm ever recorded on Earth,caused auroras(极光)in the atmosphere and even delivered electric shocks to telegraph operators.But a Carrington-scale storm today would cause far more harm because society now depends so heavily on electrical power grids,communications satellites and GPS.
In an effort to quantify that threat,astrophysicists Abraham Loeb and Manasvi Lingam of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics developed a mathematical model that assumes society's vulnerability(脆弱性)to solar storms will grow with technological advances.Under this model,during the next 50 years the potential for economic damage will depend primarily on the rising odds of a strong solar storm over time.Beyond 50 years our vulnerability will increase dramatically with technological progress until the latter levels off.
Some scientists question the model’s predictions. “Estimating the economic impact is challenging now, let alone in over a century,” says Edward Oughton, a research associate at the University of Cambridge's Center for Risk Studies.Yet he warns that uncertainty should not stop us from practical preparations, such as making power grids stronger and improving early-warning systems.
Loeb and Lingam think up a much wider strategy:$100-billion magnetic deflector shield(导流板), positioned between Earth and the sun. This idea seems “pretty preposterous, ”however, given that solar particles arrive at Earth from all directions,says Daniel Baker,director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado Boulder.
A better understanding of"space weather"-the changing condition in Earth's outer space environment, including solar radiation and particles-could help find the best strategies for confronting a dangerous solar storm,says Stacey Worman,a senior analyst at consulting firm Abt Associates."This is a challenging but important question,"Worman says,"that we need more eyes on."
1.According to Edward Oughton,which of the following about solar storms is right?
A.They will become much stronger in 150 years.
B.Technology makes their potential damage grow.
C.Space weather forecast can effectively help deal with them.
D.It's difficult to predict their possible economic damage.
2.The underlined word “preposterous” in Paragraph 5 means
A.innovative B.practical
C.unreasonable D.inflexible
3.The author writes the passage mainly to_
A.remind people to guard against solar storms
B.report the damage of solar storms
C.introduce the characteristics of solar storms
D.analyze the possible cause of solar storms
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