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To err is human. Society is suffering from an inability to acknowledge as much. For individuals, err...
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To err is human. Society is suffering from an inability to acknowledge as much.
For individuals, errors are painful. The trick, then, is to err well: to recognize mistakes and learn from them. Worryingly, humanity may be getting worse at admitting its mistakes.
Few enjoy the feeling of being caught out in an error. But real trouble starts when the desire to avoid a punishment leads to a refusal to deal with contrary evidence. Economists often assume that people are sensible. When faced with a new fact, these people should update their view of the world to take better decisions in future. Yet years of economic research confirms that people frequently disregard information that conflicts with their view of the world.
Why should that be? Last year Roland Benabou, of Princeton, presented a framework for thinking about the problem. In many ways, beliefs are like other economic goods. People spend time and resources building them, and get value from them: some beliefs make owners feel good and show their public identity; other beliefs provide value by shaping behavior—for example, religious asceticism(禁欲主义) can help one avoid unhealthy habits.
Because beliefs, however, are not simply tools for making good decisions, but are treasured in their own right, new information that challenges them is unwelcome. People often engage in “motivated reasoning” to manage such challenges. Mr Benabou classifies this into three categories. “Strategic ignorance” is when a believer avoids information offering conflicting evidence. In “reality denial”, troubling evidence is rationalized(合理化):real estate investors might make up fanciful theories for why prices should behave unusually, and supporters of a disgraced politician might claim the negative news to be fake. And lastly, in “selfsignalling”, the believer creates his own tools to interpret the facts in the way he wants: an unhealthy person, for example, might decide that going for a daily run proves he is well.
“Motivated reasoning” is a cognitive bias(偏见). Not all the errors it leads to are costly: praising the performance of one's supported football team despite contradictory evidence does little harm. But when biases are broadly shared—within financial world or political parties—danger arises. Motivated reasoning helps explain why viewpoints polarize (两极分化) even as information is more easily available than ever before.
Work by Mr Benabou suggests that groupthink is highest when people within groups face a shared fate: when choosing to break from a group is unlikely to spare an individual the costs of the group's errors or bring much individual benefit. The incentive(动力) to engage in motivated reasoning is high as a result. Even as the fact on a particular issue is obvious, parties can still become increasingly polarized. That, in turn, can make it harder still for a member of one party to get any benefit from breaking from a group. Indeed, the group has an incentive to silence independent voices.
Public statements of regret are risky in a rigidly polarized world. Admissions of error can not only annoy partners but also provide opportunities for opponents. But it is rarely in the interest of those in the right to pretend that they are never wrong.
1.According to the passage, beliefs are similar to economic goods in that ________.
A. both are entertaining and valuable B. both can be shaped by religious faith
C. both can reflect who the owners are D. both promote religious development
2.Which of the following is an example of “selfsignalling”?
A. A fan speaks highly of his team although it has just lost the game.
B. A man covers his ears when stealing a bell, believing the bell won't ring.
C. Supporters of Trump believe the news about his affairs with a lady is fake.
D. Suspected AIDS carriers refuse to be tested though it can be done for free.
3.What can be inferred from Paragraphs 6 and 7?
A. Polarization causes individuals to break from the group.
B. Richer sources of information decrease motivated reasoning.
C. Individuals with independent voices are dismissed from the group.
D. Individuals in a group engage in motivated reasoning for their own interests.
4.Which of the following opinions might the author agree with?
A. Denying errors is unavoidable.
B. Failure to admit errors is harmful.
C. Humans are getting better at erring well.
D. Wise people ignore contrary worldviews.
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